World’s Top 64 Deck Analysis

I was intrigued to see the decks that made it to the Top64 at World’s.  Here’s some thoughts regarding the meta, just from this snapshot of one tournament with the world’s best players.

The meta is healthy

Aphra and Chopper decks took 19% and 16% of the top 64 decks each, while 21% of the decks in the Top64 were one-of-a-kind decks.  I think this is pretty neat, and shows the wide range of decks in the meta. I can’t help but again compare this to Nova. 57% of decks are represented in 4 decks, while at Nova the 4 most popular decks accounted for 78% of the meta.

Here’s a graph of the Top64 decks, where ‘other’ is all one-of-a-kind decks.  ‘Other’ is the largest column, and I think this is great:

I’ve coloured the graph above by how far the decks progressed in the Top64: so both PalpJabba and PalpWatto decks got knocked out right away, while of the 10 Chopper Droids decks in the Top64, 3 made Top32, 2 made Top16 and one won the whole thing.

Deck performance is (mostly) consistent with Prime results

Above is my performance plot for World’s Top64, comparing expected performance to genuine performance.  The neat thing about World’s is I was able to find out exactly which decks faced off against which, meaning I have been able to account for effects like deck cannibalisation (where two strong decks are forced to face off early and one gets knocked out even though it was a powerhouse).

As with Primes, ReyLo is pretty average compared to what you’d expect.  Again, as with Primes, the best performing deck based on representation is 4-LOM/Grievous/Sentinel.  Chopper Droids is the third best performing deck (yes, it won the whole thing, but none of its other iterations got out of the Top16).

Another thing to note on the 4-LOM performance: I’d previously said that the chance of this deck performing as well as it has done was 1 in 410.  In World’s, it’s impressive performance had a probability of 1 in 40 of occurring just by chance. Combining these two means the chance this deck fluked to this level of success is 1 in 16400.  That’s 4 times smaller than the chance of successfully navigating an asteroid field.

Where World’s results diverged from Prime results to date is Aphra seems to be performing a bit above par, and off-meta decks are performing just averagely (compared to abysmally in Primes).

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