Prime Championships Results Analysis: Episode II – Attack of the Cloned Decks

3 weeks ago I looked at the results from the first 35 Prime Championships.  I promised that I’d update my analysis when new results come in, so here we go.  

The first 3 weeks of Primes saw 15 tournaments.  Then World’s happened. The following 3 weeks had 21 Primes.  In the last 3 weeks, there’s been a further 14 Primes featuring 96 decks, so plenty of new data to get stuck in to.

So, what’s been happening?:

The ever shifting meta

I’ve compared relative popularity for pre-World’s, the 3 weeks post-World’s, and the 3 most recent weeks.  Those dark blue bars show the most recent popularity.

Chopper Droids are now the stand-out most popular deck, both for the 3 most recent weeks, and overall.  This deck made up almost a quarter (23%) of the past 14 Prime Top Cuts.

The Rise of the Sith is apparent here, with Palp growing slightly in popularity, Vader/Greedo making up almost 10% of the recent Top Cuts, and Snoke making a belated appearance, featuring 4 times in the last 3 weeks after being completely absent from Top Cuts for the first 6 weeks.

By contrast, ReyLo is now less popular than Palp3 decks and less than half as popular as Chopper Droids.

Since my last analysis, I’ve combined all delve-fist type decks into Villain Supports, as even though there’s certainly variation between these decks, they all kind of play out the same game plan.  These decks have crashed in popularity and success recently, and recently featured less often in Top Cuts than Yoda-Leia or Plowoks.

Deck performance

I’ve repeated my analysis of deck performance accounting for popularity, and included all Primes to date.  

What I’m trying to do with this analysis is to answer questions like this: Chopper Droids has won 6 Primes of the last 14, but it’s a quarter of the meta.  Could this be down to random chance? Aphra decks have won 6 Primes altogether, but it’s a smaller portion of the meta. Is this what we might expect given how many people are playing Aphra?

As before, red is bad, green is good, blue is average (for the statistical details on this, see my previous article).  You can see that Aphra decks are outperforming their representation, but it’s well within what you might expect by chance.  Chopper droids on the other hand are dark green, meaning they’re performing much better than you’d expect by random chance.

I think this analysis answers some key questions:

Is the growth in popularity of Palp decks and decline in ReyLo decks justified?  Yes: Palp is outperforming representation, so players are drawn to this archetype, paired with Watto, Jabba, Motti or Wat.  ReyLo continues to underperform, so its decline in popularity is justified, at least if we assume the goal of destiny players is to win tournaments, which of course may not be the case.  Some people, I’m told, do play for fun.

Is Delve-Fist a problem?  I personally believe Villain Supports generally (massive generalisation here) rely too heavily on Delve-Fist.  Villain Supports continue to perform averagely, which would suggest that it’s not a problem.  This combo is pretty broken when played round 1, but since even a hard mulligan only gives you this combo in your hand 24% of the time (yes, that’s right, only 24% of the time) this deck style ends up being too inconsistent.

That being said, when it does go off round 1, if you’re not playing against Yellow Villain (Desperate Measures) or an Ewok deck packing Convergence, it’s kind of an auto-win.  So I’d still be in favour of a small nerf here to prevent the NPE.

On a side-note, Snoke-Mandalorian-Mudtrooper recently scored a victory and runner-up spot in the Gardner, Massachusetts Prime.  It ran Delve-Fist, but backed it up with some nifty trooper (Riot Shield/Measure for Measure) and Snoke power action shenanigans, making the deck more resilient and less of a one-trick-pony.  I tentatively predict this deck may rear its head a few times in the run up to Christmas.

Are Chopper Droids a problem?  Chopper Droids are still massively out-performing their already high popularity.  Not only is this deck everywhere, but it’s doing far better than you’d expect even given 1 in 4 decks are Chopper Droids.

This is a problem.  I can’t see any deck challenging Chopper Droids in the current meta in terms of performance or popularity, and it looks like it’s only going to get worse.  If this deck doesn’t get a nerf before Covert Missions, expect it to absolutely dominate the meta until then.

Coming soon: your stats questions answered

As we sit in the longest ever gap between sets since the game was released, has anyone out there got any burning stats questions they want to know the answer to?  Anything from draw probabilities, dice probabilities, or damage potential based on re-rolls, any combination of the above, or something completely different.  If so, send us a message or comment on a post and I’ll either answer it there, or compile a few questions into an article.

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